Financial markets

[Tron]

Hyperinflation chart of the day.

 

 

[Tron]

This chart is essentially proxy for the acceleration rate of interest expense for the US government, and has been a reliable indicator of fed pivot for 30+ years as the fed has ensured the US doesn't enter a debt death spiral. What is a debt death spiral?  It's an increasingly large debt load,  with ongoing deficit, that only gets exponentially larger as interest expense increases. The treasury has to issue more bills/notes/bonds to fund interest which drives up supply and can overwhelm demand thus increasing interest expense even more as yields increase and this spirals out of control, with the only way to make payments being issuing even more treasuries.(i.e. cranking the money printer) For the past 33 years the fed has used monetary policy to ensure this spiral doesn't occur. To avoid this, the fed will need to pivot soon otherwise they risk having to do even more easing and monetizing of debt down the road. To keep this line 'inbounds' they need the middle of the curve to fall ~75bp between now and the 28th. Looking more and more like this ends in either Great Depression 2.0 or Weimar style hyperinflation. If the Fed follows through with a .75 bp raise in a couple weeks, they would be knowingly blowing up the system.
 

 

[Sharpe]

Do you know of David Hunter's forecasts?

[RobMc]

I read everything, about everything, and after many years have come to the conclusion that there is no such thing as an 'expert'.

Bonds, stocks, shares, crypto, horses, systems, gurus etc etc etc all have their day and ups and downs and failures. Yes in the short term (window) if you are on the ball you can make money, but there is one thing that most forget - money is imagined, man's creation, not real and certainly not stable.

I confess to having no particular knowledge of finance, however it is obvious to me that we are in trouble when things like the great reset are bandied about. In a peculiar way Covid crippled currencies as Governments printed their way out of a situation, but it was coming anyway.

All this for one very simple fact, the experts cannot predict world events, Covid, Ukraine and food shortages being just some examples.

Anyway to the point, I note the predictions, forecasts, graphs and multiple conclusions from 'experts', but a quick reminder to the average Joe/Jill, if you can't hold it, and don't own it, likelihood is it ain't there. The one thing I do know however (from experience) is that the entire world is currently in turmoil. Countries economies collapsing, huge movements of displaced people, the usual proxy wars but their numbers are higher than ever before, food and water shortages but above all else weak politicians, entirely unsuited to dealing with these problems.

Tron bless him reminded me about this with his prediction of depression or hyperinflation, but there is one more thing to consider as a consequence, war. 

Depressing isn't it?

[Tron]

On 7/11/2022 at 6:31 PM, Sharpe said:

Do you know of David Hunter's forecasts?

Have not read anything from him. I’ll google him and see what I can find.

9.1% inflation print today makes it likely Fed raises 100bps ….Hiking us even further into a recession. Tighten your chinstraps. They likely won’t pivot until something breaks. The US Dollar is becoming a club that is pounding all emerging markets with dollar denominated debt into oblivion. 

 

 

[Tron]

Future orders -12.4% 

Gray areas are recessions

 

[LtFireman]

This chart show my give a shit growth over the last 2 years !!!

 

Edited July 22, 2022 by LtFireman

[Tron]

Big tech earnings, Fed announcement Wednesday, and Q2 GDP print Thursday means this week will be a volatile one. Tighten your chin straps. Equity market has another leg down of at least 15-20% this year IMO. Not financial advice and DYOR. 
 

i just finished reading a piece that I found to be a fascinating look at history through the lens of cycles. We are definitely headed for more turmoil this decade.

It might be a little too long for some of you idiot’s attention spans, but here you go. 
 

https://brandonquittem.com/bitcoin-rhythms-of-history/

Hey @LtFireman just trying to use my area of expertise to help my fellow idiots navigate complex financial markets. Given the decisions of our financial overlords to print us into oblivion, the average citizen is now required to have two jobs to keep their heads above water…the one where you earn money for actually providing value to society, and a second job to manage your savings in order to try and stay ahead of inflation. Most of you should probably just ignore all this stuff and put as much of your savings in Bitcoin as you can…but you won’t until It’s too late. Good luck. Also 

[Timmah!]

Long-term investment of a diversified portfolio will outperform 90% of 'experts'.  Works for me over the years.

https://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/0393358380/ref=asc_df_0393358380/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=459680637280&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=1244378946763586105&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=m&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=1017873&hvtargid=pla-864572942049&psc=1&ref_=d6k_applink_bb_dls&dplnkId=ca0f8a65-c55f-4615-a7db-c6a2c8677b48

[Tron]

1 hour ago, Timmah! said:

Long-term investment of a diversified portfolio will outperform 90% of 'experts'.  Works for me over the years.

https://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/0393358380/ref=asc_df_0393358380/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=459680637280&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=1244378946763586105&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=m&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=1017873&hvtargid=pla-864572942049&psc=1&ref_=d6k_applink_bb_dls&dplnkId=ca0f8a65-c55f-4615-a7db-c6a2c8677b48

Have fun staying PPPoor. A typical diversified portfolio mix of 60% equities and 40% bonds will get REKT over the next decade pal.

[RobMc]

1 hour ago, Tron said:

just trying to use my area of expertise

Thought you were in medicine??? your 'expertise' stretches to training in and working in the markets too??, that is an 'expert' not someone's sideline, hmmm? Think I'll call myself a gynaecologist, after all I've stared at a few and had a couple of kids? 

Anyone need a consultation?

[Timmah!]

19 minutes ago, Tron said:

Have fun staying PPPoor. A typical diversified portfolio mix of 60% equities and 40% bonds will get REKT over the next decade pal.

Lol, says you.  Will continue to implement the decades-long-proven advice of a world-reknown economist over a guy on a message board more concerned with being 'right' than accurate.

[Tron]

29 minutes ago, RobMc said:

Thought you were in medicine??? your 'expertise' stretches to training in and working in the markets too??, that is an 'expert' not someone's sideline, hmmm? Think I'll call myself a gynaecologist, after all I've stared at a few and had a couple of kids? 

Anyone need a consultation?

I have been trading in financial markets since 1996 and for the last 9 years this has been my sole source of income. I guarantee I know a hell of a lot more about these things than you do you fucking clown. Pretty much all of the posts you make on this website are simply nothing more than pot stirring criticism. I am trying to help people. I place zero value in anything you have ever said here, or will ever say. 

[Tron]

18 minutes ago, Timmah! said:

Lol, says you.  Will continue to implement the decades-long-proven advice of a world-reknown economist over a guy on a message board more concerned with being 'right' than accurate.

LMAO. You clearly have no idea what the fuck is going on in the world, if you are placing all your hopes and dreams on the “experts”. They are the reason we are in the mess we currently have.

[RobMc]

Oh he's charming isn't he, apparently none of us have

8 minutes ago, Tron said:

You clearly have no idea what the fuck is going on in the world,

What a big headed prick, well mate I'll guarantee that's not so, I'd choose @Timmah! over you any day, dream on.

FU

 

[RobMc]

15 minutes ago, Tron said:

I place zero value in anything you have ever said here, or will ever say. 

Thank fuck for that

I love you Tron

[Timmah!]

1 hour ago, Tron said:

LMAO. You clearly have no idea what the fuck is going on in the world, if you are placing all your hopes and dreams on the “experts”. They are the reason we are in the mess we currently have.

Running on ego & emotion.  Your response to my book suggestion clearly shows you didn't bother to read a cursory synopsis of its content.  Guy's a Princeton & Harvard Business School professor of economics & his theory has proven valid for DECADES.  You throwing out a non-sequitur, irrelevant response & getting triggered by Rob belies your claim of wanting to help people.  The only response you want is an unquestioning thanks for your 'advice'.  The guy's forgotten more than you think you know.  Please feel free to continue the ego meltdown currently in progress. 

The ironic height of your ignorant response is that he, too says don't rely upon the experts.  Derp.

Edited July 25, 2022 by Timmah!

[RobMc]

2 hours ago, Tron said:

It might be a little too long for some of you idiot’s attention spans,

Oh dear, not meant jokingly at all, forgive them Tron, they do not share your expertise, some of them can barely string a sentence together (after a few beers), we hang on your every word Messiah.

 

ps who do you fancy in the 1605 at Kempton???

 

And yes I am a clown, I do not take life seriously at all, enjoy joking and love to swap comments in the forums. There are a couple like you, how dull life would be if that were everyone?

Edited July 25, 2022 by RobMc

[Majbasil]

OK boys settle down.   Thanks Tron for your informative posts.  Yes we are in those last wackadoo times of the end times of a boom market, all hell will and has broken lose, then some folks will freak out and buy buy buy, etc. etc. etc.  greed is a powerful thing.  That is how it works.  

OK fine.  Now as for Timmmmmmmy, he is right and good for him.    Don't panic and sell, it is too late for that, just hold on to your investments and wait this one out, that said... some really bad things will and might happen to companies, severe losses can and will happen.  This is going to hurt.   THAT BEING SAID, there will be daylight at the end of the tunnel, things will eventually rally, money will be made, so -  INVEST, save for the future, and for me, I have battened down, am at the ready for when this bust is over for new investments, and am safe, but STILL I INVEST.  Hope, that is what we can do, hope for the best (prepare for the worst.)    2 cents  

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/09/recession-will-hit-in-first-half-2023-the-dow-is-headed-lower-cfos.html

 

[Timmah!]

12 minutes ago, Majbasil said:

OK boys settle down.   Thanks Tron for your informative posts.  Yes we are in those last wackadoo times of the end times of a boom market, all hell will and has broken lose, then some folks will freak out and buy buy buy, etc. etc. etc.  greed is a powerful thing.  That is how it works.  

OK fine.  Now as for Timmmmmmmy, he is right and good for him.    Don't panic and sell, it is too late for that, just hold on to your investments and wait this one out, that said... some really bad things will and might happen to companies, severe losses can and will happen.  This is going to hurt.   THAT BEING SAID, there will be daylight at the end of the tunnel, things will eventually rally, money will be made, so -  INVEST, save for the future, and for me, I have battened down, am at the ready for when this bust is over for new investments, and am safe, but STILL I INVEST.  Hope, that is what we can do, hope for the best (prepare for the worst.)    2 cents  

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/09/recession-will-hit-in-first-half-2023-the-dow-is-headed-lower-cfos.html

 

Please: accurate.   'Right' implies a personal investment of 'winning', rather than facts.  But, you're right.  =P

[MikeB]

Your all wrong !!  Sell everything you have !!!  Buy a Winnebago !!  And travel till your broke !!!  Will not take long with Biden's gas prices !!    Then park it in San Francisco and live off the streets and government handouts !!  

[RobMc]

1 hour ago, Majbasil said:

OK boys settle down.   Thanks Tron for your informative posts.  Yes we are in those last wackadoo times of the end times of a boom market, all hell will and has broken lose, then some folks will freak out and buy buy buy, etc. etc. etc.  greed is a powerful thing.  That is how it works.  

OK fine.  Now as for Timmmmmmmy, he is right and good for him.    Don't panic and sell, it is too late for that, just hold on to your investments and wait this one out, that said... some really bad things will and might happen to companies, severe losses can and will happen.  This is going to hurt.   THAT BEING SAID, there will be daylight at the end of the tunnel, things will eventually rally, money will be made, so -  INVEST, save for the future, and for me, I have battened down, am at the ready for when this bust is over for new investments, and am safe, but STILL I INVEST.  Hope, that is what we can do, hope for the best (prepare for the worst.)    2 cents  

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/09/recession-will-hit-in-first-half-2023-the-dow-is-headed-lower-cfos.html

 

She's far far too nice for us lot?

[SGTSmeg]

This thread is so much more fun reading it backwards

[RobMc]

30 minutes ago, SGTSmeg said:

This thread is so much more fun reading it backwards

You normally read Arabic ??  

[Tron]

Zoltan is right. Good luck.