Financial markets

[Tron]

One of the main charts I am watching to start this year is the OEX (S&P 100 big dogs)

200 week MA (blue line) needs to break for an extended bear market. (Currently around the horizontal red line at $1669) Wedge needs a sustained break above to make new highs.

Current market conditions are controlled by machines and narrative…not reality. 

Hope everyone had a safe and happy new year’s 

 

[Tron]

Some people may have looked at last weeks jobs report as a sign that the economy is still in a good spot ir the Fed might be able to pull off the "soft landing". I think things actually got worse. 
The 10Y/3M Treasury yield spread went from -62bp to -112bp in a single week...lowest in 40 years. The Fed says it's going to keep rates high throughout 2023 and the bond market isn't buying it. 
 

The more troubling number however didn't come from the jobs report it came from the US ISM services PMI report. The December reading came in at 49. This is well below the expected level of 55 and below the level of 50 for the first time since the pandemic started. This is important because we've been told the service sector has been propping up the economy...and if this sector is beginning to contract (reading below 50 indicates such contraction) then there may be little preventing the US economy from decelerating quickly here. Add in a potential crash in the housing market and that equals a lot of downside risk here regardless of what the stock market did on Friday. 

NFA / DYOR

Good luck friends 

[Tron]

CPI print today…..

 

[Tron]

Current US Government Fiscal Position 

[Tron]

[Tron]

Highly recommend anyone interested in macroeconomics and why you are screwed if you don't own some hard assets (bitcoin / gold) read this report.

 

https://www.myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan_Research_2023_01_13.pdf

[GhostfaceJim]

[Tron]

A picture is worth a thousand words. Using a 5% discount rate and a 15% earnings contraction….a garden variety recession would likely shave 600 points of the S&P 500.

[Tron]

There will be no “soft landing”. Prepare accordingly. 

[Tron]

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/we-just-witnessed-economic-sign-hasnt-happened-peak-great-depression-1932

[Majbasil]

Yes, so get ready - after the big badda booming, buy buy buy.  

Quote

After one of the most trying years in the market, the sky has opened up and savvy investors could be in a prime position to take advantage of a rare “sweet spot” in the market.

In fact, some are even calling it the best buying opportunity in history.

And it’s happening right now.

2 cents  (don't waste money, save save save and invest for future) 

[TBB]

11 hours ago, Majbasil said:

Yes, so get ready - after the big badda booming, buy buy buy.  

2 cents  (don't waste money, save save save and invest for future) 

We're not >IDIOTS<!!!!! 

[YACCster]

 

[Tron]

"The spread US IG BBB bond yield vs T-bills lowest (60bps) since Jan'81. This is a rare level of #greed (1929, '66, 73, '79, '07) that preceded tops & crashes." BofA
 

 

[Tron]

Just remember, the people responsible for this mess think they have a right to know when you've sold something on eBay for more than $600 

 

And just to provide context on the enormity of these numbers...If you were to spend $1M dollars a DAY it would take you over 2700 YEARS to spend $1 trillion 

Edited February 10, 2023 by Tron

[GhostfaceJim]

[GhostfaceJim]

[GhostfaceJim]

[Tron]

The suppression of risk and volatility post Global Financial Crisis actually transformed and transmuted that risk into fat tail outcomes in the form of deflationary busts or hyperinflationary crack up booms.

This paper is from 2015, and yet clearly maps out the macro environment we find ourselves in today. A great read if you have the time. 
 

http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Artemis-Q32015-Volatility-and-Prisoners-Dilemma.pdf

[Tron]

Interest expense on UST debt will exceed $1T in 2023.

It will push the annual deficit to over $2.3T.

The UST debt load is expanding 8% per annum and ACCELERATING. 

Debt spiral in full force as rates rise.

Carry on you clueless Fed clowns and D.C. swamp rats.

Edited March 3, 2023 by Tron

[Tron]

How a country goes bankrupt in 10 steps.
 

https://rubino.substack.com/p/how-a-country-goes-bankrupt-in-10

[Tron]

[GhostfaceJim]

Stonks!