Tron

Japan is likely to be the snowflake that starts the avalanche of the credit event we are going to experience. They are the largest holders of US Treasuries and have suppressed rates for far too long. They have 240% debt to GDP and a major demographics problem. Once they start to unwind their yield curve control, the bond vigilantes will force them to liquidate US Treasuries. This will spike UST yields...further increasing the insolvency of all the institutions who bought US Treasuries when the Fed told everyone inflation was transitory. (lol) You also may want to do some research on the difference between nominal and real returns. This will matter more than you could possibly Imagine going forward into the era of inflation we are about to live through. Gonna re-post this meme I used back when we had the first wave of the banking crisis (yes there will be more waves and bank failures)

Yep....prepare accordingly. https://internationalman.com/articles/turn-the-tables-on-financial-repression/

Stock market is predicting the Roaring 20's based on equity risk premium. Bond market is predicting either WW3, an asteroid impact or economic collapse based on the depth and duration of yield curve inversion. Good luck friends.

Our government and the Federal Reserve did this to us.

Up nearly 100% from the dip last November.

Remember back when you were a kid and went to McDonalds? Thanks Federal Reserve and corrupt politicians.

The US National Debt has increased by over $1 Trillion in just the last 34 days.

How it started... How it's going...

I feel like I'm in pretty good company when a guy that manages $1.8 Trillion worth of assets agrees with my thesis.

The most important equation in all of finance.

I have been trading financial markets for 25 years and I never been more bearish on the economy than I am right now. I hope I am wrong.

In the first half of fiscal 2023, >100% of US Federal tax receipts were spent on just 2 line items: Entitlements (SSA + HHS) & Treasury spending. Defense another 20% of receipts. Then everything else on top of that.

The US Congress is telling the US Treasury Secretary to prepare for a time when China dumps all of the $859 billion in US Treasury securities they own overnight. Yellen also saying things today about the declining role of the US dollar as reserve currency. So many people oblivious as to what's going to happen.

Markets pricing 3 Fed rate cuts by year end with first cut in September, while Fed saying 'no cuts' in 2023. This implies either significant market volatility, or a systemic loss of Fed credibility in the coming months. (They have long ago lost credibility in my eyes)

Graphical representation of all the US bank failures since 2000 based on size.