Tron

Bonds are puking and the liquidity of the world's "deepest and most important debt market" (USTs) showing cracks…..now trading like a low liquidity shitcoin.

If you believe the bear market is over, I have $170 trillion of unfunded liabilities to sell you.

There it is. Japanese 10 year yield back above .25% At .25% the BoJ is forced to buy bonds with freshly printed Yen….and the central bank already owns over 50% of all Japanese government bonds. 1. Print Yen to buy bonds and LNG supplies 2. People sell bonds to avoid being paid back in debased Yen 3. Yields go up as bonds sell off Rinse and repeat.

For those keeping score at home, USD/JPY just hit a multi-decade high of 142. Japan is the largest foreign holder of US treasuries in the world. Weaker Yen means more incentive for Japan to dump US treasuries to defend the Yen. All while the Fed is doing QT. Good luck bond holders.

Here is a summary of the rock and hard place in which the Federal Reserve currently finds itself. US Tax revenue $4T minus: Entitlements $2.8T minus: Defense $0.8T leaves: $0.4T Annual interest expense is now approx $400B (at historic low coupons) Interest coverage ratio is about 1X (a solid CCC credit rating ratio if the US were a corporation.) The debt spiral accelerates as new debt is issued at HIGHER coupon. For example-$30T in outstanding debt x 3.2% coupon is $1T in annual interest expense...(an increase of $600B/yr) This is BEFORE any new deficits AND a reduction in revenues due to lower capital gains taxes collected. So the debt spiral grows organically even in the absence of new spending. How does the US Treasury fund the debt spiral? QE infinity. Unless of course the Fed ultimately decides to follow the IMF financial repression model >>>>Yield Curve Control plus hot inflation to grow GDP faster than coupon grows. This also will result in: Either way…the average American gets fucked hard. The United States (and the rest of the world for that matter) is being run by morons at all levels …….especially near the top.

Zoltan is right. Good luck.

LMAO. You clearly have no idea what the fuck is going on in the world, if you are placing all your hopes and dreams on the “experts”. They are the reason we are in the mess we currently have.

I have been trading in financial markets since 1996 and for the last 9 years this has been my sole source of income. I guarantee I know a hell of a lot more about these things than you do you fucking clown. Pretty much all of the posts you make on this website are simply nothing more than pot stirring criticism. I am trying to help people. I place zero value in anything you have ever said here, or will ever say.

Have fun staying PPPoor. A typical diversified portfolio mix of 60% equities and 40% bonds will get REKT over the next decade pal.

Big tech earnings, Fed announcement Wednesday, and Q2 GDP print Thursday means this week will be a volatile one. Tighten your chin straps. Equity market has another leg down of at least 15-20% this year IMO. Not financial advice and DYOR. i just finished reading a piece that I found to be a fascinating look at history through the lens of cycles. We are definitely headed for more turmoil this decade. It might be a little too long for some of you idiot’s attention spans, but here you go. https://brandonquittem.com/bitcoin-rhythms-of-history/ Hey @LtFireman just trying to use my area of expertise to help my fellow idiots navigate complex financial markets. Given the decisions of our financial overlords to print us into oblivion, the average citizen is now required to have two jobs to keep their heads above water…the one where you earn money for actually providing value to society, and a second job to manage your savings in order to try and stay ahead of inflation. Most of you should probably just ignore all this stuff and put as much of your savings in Bitcoin as you can…but you won’t until It’s too late. Good luck. Also

Future orders -12.4% Gray areas are recessions

Have not read anything from him. I’ll google him and see what I can find. 9.1% inflation print today makes it likely Fed raises 100bps ….Hiking us even further into a recession. Tighten your chinstraps. They likely won’t pivot until something breaks. The US Dollar is becoming a club that is pounding all emerging markets with dollar denominated debt into oblivion.

This chart is essentially proxy for the acceleration rate of interest expense for the US government, and has been a reliable indicator of fed pivot for 30+ years as the fed has ensured the US doesn't enter a debt death spiral. What is a debt death spiral? It's an increasingly large debt load, with ongoing deficit, that only gets exponentially larger as interest expense increases. The treasury has to issue more bills/notes/bonds to fund interest which drives up supply and can overwhelm demand thus increasing interest expense even more as yields increase and this spirals out of control, with the only way to make payments being issuing even more treasuries.(i.e. cranking the money printer) For the past 33 years the fed has used monetary policy to ensure this spiral doesn't occur. To avoid this, the fed will need to pivot soon otherwise they risk having to do even more easing and monetizing of debt down the road. To keep this line 'inbounds' they need the middle of the curve to fall ~75bp between now and the 28th. Looking more and more like this ends in either Great Depression 2.0 or Weimar style hyperinflation. If the Fed follows through with a .75 bp raise in a couple weeks, they would be knowingly blowing up the system.

Hyperinflation chart of the day.

That’s a brutal surgery to recover from. Wishing you a rapid recovery.

I’m not 100% convinced that high inflation is here to stay throughout 2022. The Fed is clearly trying to engineer a rapid and severe summertime recession, which will serve to massively destroy demand and possibly lead to shockingly swift & strong deflation. Then, they will follow that up with a breathtaking amount of #QE4.

My wife has been going on and on for the last 6 months about how she wanted to get a new Mini Cooper…she had one about 10 years ago and wanted it back. So on the sly I was able to figure out what colors she wanted and I factory ordered her a new electric Mini Cooper a few months ago. I just got the update that it’s at the port now. This is gonna be epic when I take her out for lunch one day soon….and wind up at the Mini dealer to collect her new car.

Hyperinflation chart of the day…High Yield Credit Spreads at fresh highs….going higher.

Who would have guessed that Smeg was good at playing with himself?

Man....I post a joke and you guys in the replies get all serious on me.