Tron

CPI print today…..

Some people may have looked at last weeks jobs report as a sign that the economy is still in a good spot ir the Fed might be able to pull off the "soft landing". I think things actually got worse. The 10Y/3M Treasury yield spread went from -62bp to -112bp in a single week...lowest in 40 years. The Fed says it's going to keep rates high throughout 2023 and the bond market isn't buying it. The more troubling number however didn't come from the jobs report it came from the US ISM services PMI report. The December reading came in at 49. This is well below the expected level of 55 and below the level of 50 for the first time since the pandemic started. This is important because we've been told the service sector has been propping up the economy...and if this sector is beginning to contract (reading below 50 indicates such contraction) then there may be little preventing the US economy from decelerating quickly here. Add in a potential crash in the housing market and that equals a lot of downside risk here regardless of what the stock market did on Friday. NFA / DYOR Good luck friends

I just saw this post now and am so sorry for this devastating loss. If you ever need to talk to someone shoot me a DM and I'll gladly give you my mobile number. Sometimes it helps to talk to someone who doesn't have an emotional attachment to your experienced loss. Hoping you find peace amongst the chaos

One of the main charts I am watching to start this year is the OEX (S&P 100 big dogs) 200 week MA (blue line) needs to break for an extended bear market. (Currently around the horizontal red line at $1669) Wedge needs a sustained break above to make new highs. Current market conditions are controlled by machines and narrative…not reality. Hope everyone had a safe and happy new year’s

Remember when 30 year bond yields were sub 3.5%? Good times.

Now that it’s clear the anticipated Fed pivot is off the table…don’t be surprised if we get some big time year end tax loss selling.

My prediction is that Powell will see his shadow today, and we will have at least 6 more weeks of winter in the S&P 500. NFA/DYOR

Still waiting for the other half of the hand to form on the chart of today’s price action, which will ultimately be the market makers giving the average retail investor the finger.

Agree with this take. Plunging tax receipts will be what eventually requires that the money printer be turned back on. We had record tax receipts in 2021 due to lots of capital gains. In 2022, not so much. Yet Federal budgets and expenditures were based on those inflated tax receipts. (The FedGov never stops growing) These Federal deficits will be monetized, as a hard default is off the table given that the US Dollar is the WRC(for now).

Since I know nothing about your individual financial situation, I cannot recommend anything.

Friendly reminder that the current price action in stocks after this morning’s CPI print is still a bear market rally. Don’t get fomo and long a short term top. People forget that inflation does not move in a linear fashion, and that it compounds. Powell will be forced to change his tone tomorrow even if he still plans a 50bps hike as the market expects. Remember what happened after his Jackson Hole speech and presser? I do.

Rate hikes to 5%? Sure Powell…whatever you say. Conditions are primed for a stock market crash this week. Not saying it will happen, but the market is a game of probabilities, and all of the systems I use are pointing to major risk off this week….Fed policy update on Wed will likely move market in a big way. Much bigger downside risk for a negative surprise, than there is for a move up with positive data. NFA and DYOR. Merry Christmas!

Seems like a lot.

It’s official. The US Treasury curve is now more than 70% inverted. In the last 50 years of history, every time we have surpassed this threshold a recession followed. We are now at 76% with the Fed still hiking rates and doing QT.

@YACCster I'm stopping in the DR on a Holland America cruise over Christmas week. Would like to grab a box of cigars to bring back...what should I look for?

Good luck to all the retired idiots out there in the UK. https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/uk-announce-stealth-tax-raid-pensions

AKA - A depression

This is what it would look like If economists designed bathrooms.

The last time the U.S. markets faced a drawdown of this magnitude, the U.S. Government defaulted upon its gold peg within the next 24 months. 1933 - Executive order 6102 1971 - Nixon Shock Powell’s choice is either inflation, or Great Depression 2.0, not inflation or soft landing.