Tron

If this banking collapse doesn’t show you the use case for Bitcoin, you’re NGMI.

Yes, this SVB failure is partially her fault. You obviously haven't been paying attention to this particular situation closely, and the things she said publicly last week regarding this bank. I'm not really political...consider myself to be a Libertarian..but your simplistic view on blaming only R's for this is very naive.

SVB's Chief Administrative Officer was the CFO of Lehman Brothers' Investment Bank when it collapsed. SVB's Chief Risk Officer was the Managing Director at Deutsche Bank during 2008 AND led credit ratings in 2007. The CEO was a director at the San Francisco Fed from 2019 to the present. You can't even make this shit up ....

Not only that…there are thousands of people who won’t get paid next week because the startup or small business they work for can’t make payroll. Lots of layoffs coming from this unless someone steps in and picks up the pieces. If it happens, my money is on Goldman Sachs being the acquirer. If they et liquidated…customers probably looking at a 20% haircut. Here is good summary of why this bank run will have so many ripple effects.

We don't need more regulations, we need regulators to do their fucking jobs. This one was preventable and some may argue the run on SVB was started by Senator Warren, and partially caused by regulatory rule making requiring too much capital allocated to US debt. All this is going to do is ensure every high net worth individual moves their cash from small banks to one of the big 4 banks. This will make our "too big to fail" problem even worse and concentrate power. It will also severely imperil liquidity at smaller community banks.

This weekend, the Feds will make JP Morgan or some other large bank buy them ....with an implicit guarantee they won't lose any money backstopped by you and I the taxpayer. This isn't the big one...but every bank in America is likely to be "technically insolvent" right now, because they all hold large amounts of US Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities that have tumbled in mark to market value due to the insane pace of rate hikes. The people managing risk at SVB bet their bank on rates staying low forever without hedging at all. Given the nature of our fractional reserve banking system, if enough people decide to pull out their cash, this would even happen at Wells Fargo or JP Morgan....and eventually it will happen at a large bank. Buckle up. High net worth individuals will begin to move all cash balances above $250k into short term Treasury Bills. Good idea for everyone to keep at least a month's worth of expenses in cash at home in the event we have a systemic banking crisis...the chances of which are definitely not zero.

Run on one bank → credit event → contagion → imminent financial system collapse → QE infinity

How a country goes bankrupt in 10 steps. https://rubino.substack.com/p/how-a-country-goes-bankrupt-in-10

How a country goes bankrupt in 10 steps. https://rubino.substack.com/p/how-a-country-goes-bankrupt-in-10

Interest expense on UST debt will exceed $1T in 2023. It will push the annual deficit to over $2.3T. The UST debt load is expanding 8% per annum and ACCELERATING. Debt spiral in full force as rates rise. Carry on you clueless Fed clowns and D.C. swamp rats.

The suppression of risk and volatility post Global Financial Crisis actually transformed and transmuted that risk into fat tail outcomes in the form of deflationary busts or hyperinflationary crack up booms. This paper is from 2015, and yet clearly maps out the macro environment we find ourselves in today. A great read if you have the time. http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Artemis-Q32015-Volatility-and-Prisoners-Dilemma.pdf

Just remember, the people responsible for this mess think they have a right to know when you've sold something on eBay for more than $600 And just to provide context on the enormity of these numbers...If you were to spend $1M dollars a DAY it would take you over 2700 YEARS to spend $1 trillion

"The spread US IG BBB bond yield vs T-bills lowest (60bps) since Jan'81. This is a rare level of #greed (1929, '66, 73, '79, '07) that preceded tops & crashes." BofA

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/we-just-witnessed-economic-sign-hasnt-happened-peak-great-depression-1932

There will be no “soft landing”. Prepare accordingly.

A picture is worth a thousand words. Using a 5% discount rate and a 15% earnings contraction….a garden variety recession would likely shave 600 points of the S&P 500.

Highly recommend anyone interested in macroeconomics and why you are screwed if you don't own some hard assets (bitcoin / gold) read this report. https://www.myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan_Research_2023_01_13.pdf

Current US Government Fiscal Position

CPI print today…..

Some people may have looked at last weeks jobs report as a sign that the economy is still in a good spot ir the Fed might be able to pull off the "soft landing". I think things actually got worse. The 10Y/3M Treasury yield spread went from -62bp to -112bp in a single week...lowest in 40 years. The Fed says it's going to keep rates high throughout 2023 and the bond market isn't buying it. The more troubling number however didn't come from the jobs report it came from the US ISM services PMI report. The December reading came in at 49. This is well below the expected level of 55 and below the level of 50 for the first time since the pandemic started. This is important because we've been told the service sector has been propping up the economy...and if this sector is beginning to contract (reading below 50 indicates such contraction) then there may be little preventing the US economy from decelerating quickly here. Add in a potential crash in the housing market and that equals a lot of downside risk here regardless of what the stock market did on Friday. NFA / DYOR Good luck friends