I quickly skimmed thru this thread. A few things come to mind:
- All the patch updates installed v1.7 is the last one
- Firewall blocking the ports, make sure uPnP is enabled on your router, better yet enable DMZ to your machine for testing alone
- Make sure Windows firewall is not blocking the game app iw3mp.exe
- counting till timeout reflects you're unable to reach the server, and effectively open a connection socket
- Run a ping to the server IP address, if that works, which I think it should - try connecting manually, I know you've tried this but I am asking assuming you have verified all of the above
On another note, do you have the Steam Game or retail version?