Financial markets

[Tron]

[Tron]

[Tron]

This is what it would look like If economists designed bathrooms.

[Tron]

AKA - A depression 

[MikeB]

On 10/11/2022 at 3:49 PM, Sammy said:

Why it debt pronounced 'det' but debit is pronounced exactly as its spelled?

The "bt" sound would be a hell of a tongue twister to pronounce !!  

 In todays world even though banks and credit unions are federally insured, what happens when both fail !!!!  Your fucked !!!  In that situation we will rely on the "Barter" system.   Real Estate, precious metals, and of course other tangible items of need will be used.  Gold Standard here we come !!!  Real Estate (especially farm land) is being bought around here by large corporations and Investment firms at a much higher rate than in the past.

[major-mark63]

invest in north korean nuclear rockets military !!!!

[major-mark63]

its sure we gonna be on a recession.

mortgage rates were too much low that lot of family bought out of price houses cause by low cost mortage  payments ,

in 1980'S rate were at 12% when i bought my first house, and for every 1000$ mortgage was a 100$ payment a month,

Every expense or aver time money was put on mortgage loan to clear it faster .

Now i see a lot of family have out of price house ( for my budget thinking) they go lot of rerstaurant, south trip , huge pickup truck when not needed and complain about gas prices etc ,

thats what we didint do back in 80'-90s  cause of high rate , most ever money was to lower mortgage amount .

but still historic economic is making waves up and down.. just be patient ...

just my opinion, im not a specialist but im in money investment for 40 yrs now

 

[Tron]

Good luck to all the retired idiots out there in the UK.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/uk-announce-stealth-tax-raid-pensions

[YACCster]

1 hour ago, Tron said:

Good luck to all the retired idiots out there in the UK.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/uk-announce-stealth-tax-raid-pensions

Hey @RobMc how do you like these apples?

[Tron]

It’s official. 

The US Treasury curve is now more than 70% inverted.
 
In the last 50 years of history, every time we have surpassed this threshold a recession followed.
 
We are now at 76% with the Fed still hiking rates and doing QT.
 

 

[TBB]

6 hours ago, Tron said:

It’s official. 

The US Treasury curve is now more than 70% inverted.
 
In the last 50 years of history, every time we have surpassed this threshold a recession followed.
 
We are now at 76% with the Fed still hiking rates and doing QT.
 

 

Don't you mean perverted - not inverted???

[Tron]

Seems like a lot. 

[Tron]

Rate hikes to 5%? Sure Powell…whatever you say. 
 

Conditions are primed for a stock market crash this week. Not saying it will happen, but the market is a game of probabilities, and all of the systems I use are pointing to major risk off this week….Fed policy update on Wed will likely move market in a big way. Much bigger downside risk for a negative surprise, than there is for a move up with positive data. NFA and DYOR.

Merry Christmas!

 

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Tron

[Tron]

Friendly reminder that the current price action in stocks after this morning’s CPI print is still a bear market rally. Don’t get fomo and long a short term top. People forget that inflation does not move in a linear fashion, and that it compounds.
 

Powell will be forced to change his tone tomorrow even if he still plans a 50bps hike as the market expects. Remember what happened after his Jackson Hole speech and presser? I do.

[YACCster]

31 minutes ago, Tron said:

Friendly reminder that the current price action in stocks after this morning’s CPI print is still a bear market rally. Don’t get fomo and long a short term top. People forget that inflation does not move in a linear fashion, and that it compounds.
 

Powell will be forced to change his tone tomorrow even if he still plans a 50bps hike as the market expects. Remember what happened after his Jackson Hole speech and presser? I do.

So what would you recommend?

[Tron]

12 minutes ago, YACCster said:

So what would you recommend?

Since I know nothing about your individual financial situation, I cannot recommend anything. 

[Tron]

Agree with this take.

Plunging tax receipts will be what eventually requires that the money printer be turned back on. We had record tax receipts in 2021 due to lots of capital gains. In 2022, not so much. Yet Federal budgets and expenditures were based on those inflated tax receipts. (The FedGov never stops growing) These Federal deficits will be monetized, as a hard default is off the table given that the US Dollar is the WRC(for now). 

[Tron]

Still waiting for the other half of the hand to form on the chart of today’s price action, which will ultimately be the market makers giving the average retail investor the finger. 

[Tron]

My prediction is that Powell will see his shadow today, and we will have at least 6 more weeks of winter in the S&P 500. NFA/DYOR

[Izumi]

[VHS2]

More interesting than Powell's speech at 2 o'clock, the beginning of the France-Morocco semi-final soccer match 

2 hours of summer in Qatar! 

[Tron]

Now that it’s clear the anticipated Fed pivot is off the table…don’t be surprised if we get some big time year end tax loss selling.