Financial markets

[Tron]

[Tron]

How a country goes bankrupt in 10 steps.
 

https://rubino.substack.com/p/how-a-country-goes-bankrupt-in-10

[Tron]

[GhostfaceJim]

[GhostfaceJim]

[Tron]

Run on one bank → credit event → contagion → imminent financial system collapse → QE infinity
 

 

[YACCster]

23 hours ago, Tron said:

Run on one bank → credit event → contagion → imminent financial system collapse → QE infinity
 

 

Lender is SEIZED by regulators in largest US bank failure since Great Recession:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11845495/Silicon-Valley-Bank-branch-calls-NYPD-tech-investors-tried-pull-cash.html

 

New Info added!:

Treasury Secretary Yellen says she has 'full confidence' in US banking, at talks with regulators over SVB failure

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11845969/Janet-Yellen-insists-banking-resilient-biggest-bank-failure-2008.html

 

WOW, whew, that was a close one, everything must be ok then!

Edited March 10, 2023 by YACCster
additional info

[GhostfaceJim]

[GhostfaceJim]

[Tron]

17 hours ago, YACCster said:

Lender is SEIZED by regulators in largest US bank failure since Great Recession:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11845495/Silicon-Valley-Bank-branch-calls-NYPD-tech-investors-tried-pull-cash.html

 

New Info added!:

Treasury Secretary Yellen says she has 'full confidence' in US banking, at talks with regulators over SVB failure

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11845969/Janet-Yellen-insists-banking-resilient-biggest-bank-failure-2008.html

 

WOW, whew, that was a close one, everything must be ok then!

This weekend, the Feds will make JP Morgan or some other large bank buy them ....with an implicit guarantee they won't lose any money backstopped by you and I the taxpayer. 
 

This isn't the big one...but every bank in America is likely to be "technically insolvent" right now, because they all hold large amounts of US Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities that have tumbled in mark to market value due to the insane pace of rate hikes. The people managing risk at SVB bet their bank on rates staying low forever without hedging at all. Given the nature of our fractional reserve banking system, if enough people decide to pull out their cash, this would even happen at Wells Fargo or JP Morgan....and eventually it will happen at a large bank. Buckle up. High net worth individuals will begin to move all cash balances above $250k into short term Treasury Bills. Good idea for everyone to keep at least a month's worth of expenses in cash at home in the event we have a systemic banking crisis...the chances of which are definitely not zero. 
 

 

Edited March 11, 2023 by Tron

[Majbasil]

so........... have we learned anything yet?  https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrarodriguezvalladares/2018/08/22/why-do-republicans-want-to-gut-bank-regulations-even-more/?sh=1bb3bec14279   sigh... history repeats itself...  some ideologies are really bad for the world, some aren't.  VOTE WISELY  (our future depends on it.) 

[Tron]

24 minutes ago, Majbasil said:

so........... have we learned anything yet?  https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrarodriguezvalladares/2018/08/22/why-do-republicans-want-to-gut-bank-regulations-even-more/?sh=1bb3bec14279   sigh... history repeats itself...  some ideologies are really bad for the world, some aren't.  VOTE WISELY  (our future depends on it.) 

We don't need more regulations, we need regulators to do their fucking jobs. This one was preventable and some may argue the run on SVB was started by Senator Warren, and partially caused by regulatory rule making requiring too much capital allocated to US debt. All this is going to do is ensure every high net worth individual moves their cash from small banks to one of the big 4 banks. This will make our "too big to fail" problem even worse and concentrate power. It will also severely imperil liquidity at smaller community banks. 

[YACCster]

In case you think the SVB collapse affects only the Silicon Valley elites:

Mompreneurs on Etsy say they can't 'pay the mortgage or feed their kids' after their payments failed to arrive because firm used shuttered Silicon Valley Bank to process sales - as fallout from collapse hits ordinary families

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11848079/Mompreneurs-Etsy-hit-SVB-collapse-pay-bills.html

 

[Tron]

31 minutes ago, YACCster said:

In case you think the SVB collapse affects only the Silicon Valley elites:

Mompreneurs on Etsy say they can't 'pay the mortgage or feed their kids' after their payments failed to arrive because firm used shuttered Silicon Valley Bank to process sales - as fallout from collapse hits ordinary families

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11848079/Mompreneurs-Etsy-hit-SVB-collapse-pay-bills.html

 

Not only that…there are thousands of people who won’t get paid next week because the startup or small business they work for can’t make payroll. Lots of layoffs coming from this unless someone steps in and picks up the pieces. If it happens, my money is on Goldman Sachs being the acquirer. If they et liquidated…customers probably looking at a 20% haircut. 
 

Here is good summary of why this bank run will have so many ripple effects.

 

 

Edited March 11, 2023 by Tron

[Tron]

On 3/9/2023 at 6:25 PM, Tron said:

Run on one bank → credit event → contagion → imminent financial system collapse → QE infinity
 

 

 

[Tron]

SVB's Chief Administrative Officer was the CFO of Lehman Brothers' Investment Bank when it collapsed. 

SVB's Chief Risk Officer was the Managing Director at Deutsche Bank during 2008 AND led credit ratings in 2007. 

The CEO was a director at the San Francisco Fed from 2019 to the present.

You can't even make this shit up ....

[YACCster]

At least they had their priorities in the right place:

 

Silicon Valley Bank had NO head of 'risk assessment' for nine months before it collapsed... as woke boss for Europe, Middle East and Africa was busy organizing a month-long Pride campaign

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11848705/Woke-head-risk-assessment-Silicon-Valley-Bank-accused-prioritizing-diversity-issues.html

 

 

[Majbasil]

Hang on there, are you trying to blame Elizabeth Warren for this mess? W T actual F!  Shesh that is like saying WW2 is Churchill's fault imho.  https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/12/silicon-valley-bank-fallout-washington-00086662

 

Nope, this is by Republicans ideology and efforts, as per usual working oh so hard to f^ck things up and deregulate (gotta make white collar crime easier so a few can profit) banks and frankly everything.  Now, the S&it is hitting the proverbial fan once again and more banks to crash as well apparently.  What did we learn from this, or did we not learn anything and history once again repeats itself and craps all over everyone.  PARDON MY dag gone FRENCH.   

Quote

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is renewing calls for strengthening oversight and bolstering measures that reduce bank reliance on debt — something that Fed officials have identified as a top priority. Banks have launched a lobbying onslaught to resist those efforts.

“Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse underscores the need for strong rules to protect the financial system,” Warren tweeted. “Regulators must not buckle to pressure.”

 

[Tron]

9 minutes ago, Majbasil said:

Hang on there, are you trying to blame Elizabeth Warren for this mess? W T actual F!  Shesh that is like saying WW2 is Churchill's fault imho.  https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/12/silicon-valley-bank-fallout-washington-00086662

 

Nope, this is by Republicans ideology and efforts, as per usual working oh so hard to f^ck things up and deregulate (gotta make white collar crime easier so a few can profit) banks and frankly everything.  Now, the S&it is hitting the proverbial fan once again and more banks to crash as well apparently.  What did we learn from this, or did we not learn anything and history once again repeats itself and craps all over everyone.  PARDON MY dag gone FRENCH.   

 

Yes, this SVB failure is partially her fault. You obviously haven't been paying attention to this particular situation closely, and the things she said publicly last week regarding this bank. I'm not really political...consider myself to be a Libertarian..but your simplistic view on blaming only R's for this is very naive.

[YACCster]

Next one happening soon maybe FNB?:

Bank shares plummet up to 74% in pre-market trading despite Biden's guarantee scheme for SVB and Signature Bank - amid fears of a banking rout mount when stock market opens at 9.30am

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11853651/Bank-shares-plummet-71-pre-market-trading-despite-Bidens-backing.html

 

Edited March 13, 2023 by YACCster