Tron Posted September 28, 2022 Member ID: 4147 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 26 Topic Count: 77 Topics Per Day: 0.02 Content Count: 781 Content Per Day: 0.18 Reputation: 889 Achievement Points: 6449 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 3 Joined: 12/07/12 Status: Offline Last Seen: Yesterday at 09:44 AM Birthday: 07/25/1968 Device: iPhone Author Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) Bwahahahaha You couldn’t even make this shit up. The Bank of England is about to show the world what it looks like to run QE while also raising interest rates. It should now be painfully obvious that this situation is well and truly fucked. Edited September 28, 2022 by Tron Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Sharpe Posted September 28, 2022 Member ID: 23520 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 31 Topic Count: 12 Topics Per Day: 0.00 Content Count: 757 Content Per Day: 0.23 Reputation: 835 Achievement Points: 7265 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 1 Joined: 11/13/15 Status: Offline Last Seen: 8 hours ago Device: Windows Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Tron said: Bwahahahaha You couldn’t even make this shit up. The Bank of England is about to show the world what it looks like to run QE while also raising interest rates. It should now be painfully obvious that this situation is well and truly fucked. Oh dear. Lol. Might put Gordon Brown to shame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
major-mark63 Posted September 29, 2022 Member ID: 23233 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 22 Topic Count: 47 Topics Per Day: 0.01 Content Count: 2663 Content Per Day: 0.81 Reputation: 2061 Achievement Points: 20932 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 8 Joined: 09/10/15 Status: Offline Last Seen: 9 hours ago Birthday: 08/11/1963 Device: Windows Share Posted September 29, 2022 So all who lost lot of asset in their pension plans gonna have to work longer so its a great thing for lack of work force.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Tron Posted September 30, 2022 Member ID: 4147 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 26 Topic Count: 77 Topics Per Day: 0.02 Content Count: 781 Content Per Day: 0.18 Reputation: 889 Achievement Points: 6449 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 3 Joined: 12/07/12 Status: Offline Last Seen: Yesterday at 09:44 AM Birthday: 07/25/1968 Device: iPhone Author Share Posted September 30, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
FunStick Posted September 30, 2022 Member ID: 1100 Group: ***- Inactive Clan Members Followers: 164 Topic Count: 165 Topics Per Day: 0.03 Content Count: 1038 Content Per Day: 0.19 Reputation: 622 Achievement Points: 9273 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 2 Joined: 02/07/10 Status: Offline Last Seen: May 3 Birthday: 11/30/1980 Device: Android Share Posted September 30, 2022 I lost a good chunk of money from a reverse split. It went up a bit to lower my DCA, but I flaked, took my loss and put it in two other etfs for the time being. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Tron Posted October 1, 2022 Member ID: 4147 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 26 Topic Count: 77 Topics Per Day: 0.02 Content Count: 781 Content Per Day: 0.18 Reputation: 889 Achievement Points: 6449 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 3 Joined: 12/07/12 Status: Offline Last Seen: Yesterday at 09:44 AM Birthday: 07/25/1968 Device: iPhone Author Share Posted October 1, 2022 (edited) This is a great summary of what’s happening in the UK for those interested. Edited October 1, 2022 by Tron Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Tron Posted October 1, 2022 Member ID: 4147 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 26 Topic Count: 77 Topics Per Day: 0.02 Content Count: 781 Content Per Day: 0.18 Reputation: 889 Achievement Points: 6449 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 3 Joined: 12/07/12 Status: Offline Last Seen: Yesterday at 09:44 AM Birthday: 07/25/1968 Device: iPhone Author Share Posted October 1, 2022 Credit Suisse CDS (credit default swaps) not looking too good. Thinking we’re gonna have another Bear Sterns / Lehman moment very soon when a large investment bank goes under. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Tron Posted October 2, 2022 Member ID: 4147 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 26 Topic Count: 77 Topics Per Day: 0.02 Content Count: 781 Content Per Day: 0.18 Reputation: 889 Achievement Points: 6449 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 3 Joined: 12/07/12 Status: Offline Last Seen: Yesterday at 09:44 AM Birthday: 07/25/1968 Device: iPhone Author Share Posted October 2, 2022 This is NOT a run of the mill bear market. You can think of every single global risk asset’s risk as being priced off the US long bond (sometimes referred to as the “risk free rate”). Due to QE, the long bond was wrongly priced. Now it is normalizing. Every single global risk asset (equities, real estate, whatever) should have a risk premium on top of the US long bond. Due to QE this risk premium became effectively zero, or close to zero, over the last few years. Due to the suspension of QE, every single global risk asset is now being repriced against a normalizing US bond yield and normalizing risk premium. This, in effect, means that the discount rate for each and every global risk asset is rising by between 2% and 10%. The effect of raising the discount rate for a risk asset from low single digits to mid- to high-single digits/low double digits will cut the value of every single global risk asset (beyond short-term credit) by 20% to 50%, or more. Should inflation remain sticky, this downward repricing will not be reversed, unlike after the dot com bubble and GFC of ‘08. We are at the beginning of a likely permanent, once-in-a-generation, downward repricing of every single global risk asset after a likely permanent, once-in-a-generation, upward repricing of the discount rate for all risk assets. Despite the year-to-date decline in global risk asset prices, many investors still haven't really grasped that 1) the repricing still has a long way to go and 2) there will be no rebound at the other end until we have some sort of Plaza Accord 2.0 / new global monetary system. The petrodollar is dead. Globalization is dead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
WeednFeed Posted October 2, 2022 Member ID: 433 Group: ++ COD4 Admin Followers: 40 Topic Count: 352 Topics Per Day: 0.06 Content Count: 2439 Content Per Day: 0.44 Reputation: 4013 Achievement Points: 25053 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 41 Joined: 09/17/09 Status: Offline Last Seen: 13 hours ago Birthday: 05/28/1957 Device: Macintosh Share Posted October 2, 2022 Well I haven’t read all these posts, just a few. As far as I’m concerned I saw this shit show coming several years ago. I believe the only reason this hadn’t happened earlier was due to Covid. QE is political bullshit in my eyes. Stupid WAY TOO LOW interest rates just hooks too many people into a false sense of SPENDING. Years ago when I was young I stupidly voted LIBERAL! I was blinded by the Liberal spending promise’s of JOB CREATION, It didn’t take very long in my younger life to realize marriage owning any kind of assets called for fiscal responsibility, you know pay your bills on time or THE BANK MAN WILL COME to take back HIS STUFF. So life’s lesson is I pay my debts or I LOOSE what I’ve accumulated. Pretty simple stuff. So the government’s of the day promises big spending, big borrowing for job creation oh let’s print more money and practice QE. The thing is Government has no money, government have TAXES the middle class in most modern countries are expected to PAY MORE TAXES to take up more government dept. IF I RAN MY HOUSEHOLD LIKE THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE DAY RUN BUDGETS SOMEONE WOULD FORECLOSE ON ME. All political promises COST $$$$$. Some has to pay that someone is YOU, All my money is in Credit Union GIC’s 3.25, 4.50. 4.60, and 4.7%. I no longer deal with big banks, in Canada all the big banks show profits from 2-2.8 billion per QUARTER. Smeggie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Sammy Posted October 2, 2022 Member ID: 3036 Group: ***- Inactive Clan Members Followers: 32 Topic Count: 219 Topics Per Day: 0.05 Content Count: 9419 Content Per Day: 2.01 Reputation: 7515 Achievement Points: 62539 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 21 Joined: 11/29/11 Status: Offline Last Seen: December 30, 2023 Birthday: 04/26/2008 Device: Windows Share Posted October 2, 2022 Who do you want to tax instead? And then... we have shit politics that try to answer that. And here we are stuck in the middle. Fortunately I dont have any debts, other than whatever I have to put on my card for a short time and pay it off. Unforeseen car repairs and such. They are helpful to maintain a firewall, so to speak, between spending and my bank account in case there are issues, disagreements, or worse. Could be worse. You could trust in bitcoin. WeednFeed 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Tron Posted October 4, 2022 Member ID: 4147 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 26 Topic Count: 77 Topics Per Day: 0.02 Content Count: 781 Content Per Day: 0.18 Reputation: 889 Achievement Points: 6449 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 3 Joined: 12/07/12 Status: Offline Last Seen: Yesterday at 09:44 AM Birthday: 07/25/1968 Device: iPhone Author Share Posted October 4, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Sharpe Posted October 4, 2022 Member ID: 23520 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 31 Topic Count: 12 Topics Per Day: 0.00 Content Count: 757 Content Per Day: 0.23 Reputation: 835 Achievement Points: 7265 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 1 Joined: 11/13/15 Status: Offline Last Seen: 8 hours ago Device: Windows Share Posted October 4, 2022 On 10/2/2022 at 10:47 AM, Tron said: This is NOT a run of the mill bear market. You can think of every single global risk asset’s risk as being priced off the US long bond (sometimes referred to as the “risk free rate”). Due to QE, the long bond was wrongly priced. Now it is normalizing. Every single global risk asset (equities, real estate, whatever) should have a risk premium on top of the US long bond. Due to QE this risk premium became effectively zero, or close to zero, over the last few years. Due to the suspension of QE, every single global risk asset is now being repriced against a normalizing US bond yield and normalizing risk premium. This, in effect, means that the discount rate for each and every global risk asset is rising by between 2% and 10%. The effect of raising the discount rate for a risk asset from low single digits to mid- to high-single digits/low double digits will cut the value of every single global risk asset (beyond short-term credit) by 20% to 50%, or more. Should inflation remain sticky, this downward repricing will not be reversed, unlike after the dot com bubble and GFC of ‘08. We are at the beginning of a likely permanent, once-in-a-generation, downward repricing of every single global risk asset after a likely permanent, once-in-a-generation, upward repricing of the discount rate for all risk assets. Despite the year-to-date decline in global risk asset prices, many investors still haven't really grasped that 1) the repricing still has a long way to go and 2) there will be no rebound at the other end until we have some sort of Plaza Accord 2.0 / new global monetary system. The petrodollar is dead. Globalization is dead. Does it have one last major rally in it though? When will the fed pivot? Is it too late? Going to be interesting to see lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Tron Posted October 4, 2022 Member ID: 4147 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 26 Topic Count: 77 Topics Per Day: 0.02 Content Count: 781 Content Per Day: 0.18 Reputation: 889 Achievement Points: 6449 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 3 Joined: 12/07/12 Status: Offline Last Seen: Yesterday at 09:44 AM Birthday: 07/25/1968 Device: iPhone Author Share Posted October 4, 2022 4 hours ago, Sharpe said: Does it have one last major rally in it though? When will the fed pivot? Is it too late? Going to be interesting to see lol. Given where the VIX currently sits, 2% daily volatility is to be expected. There will be no pivot this year for sure..regardless of the UN and IMF begging for one. This week I'll be adding back some of the short positions I covered on Friday. Also adding more put spreads out to December on SPY and QQQ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Tron Posted October 5, 2022 Member ID: 4147 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 26 Topic Count: 77 Topics Per Day: 0.02 Content Count: 781 Content Per Day: 0.18 Reputation: 889 Achievement Points: 6449 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 3 Joined: 12/07/12 Status: Offline Last Seen: Yesterday at 09:44 AM Birthday: 07/25/1968 Device: iPhone Author Share Posted October 5, 2022 On 10/3/2022 at 9:23 PM, Tron said: Yep….. https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-agrees-to-biggest-oil-production-cut-since-start-of-pandemic-11664978144 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Tron Posted October 7, 2022 Member ID: 4147 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 26 Topic Count: 77 Topics Per Day: 0.02 Content Count: 781 Content Per Day: 0.18 Reputation: 889 Achievement Points: 6449 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 3 Joined: 12/07/12 Status: Offline Last Seen: Yesterday at 09:44 AM Birthday: 07/25/1968 Device: iPhone Author Share Posted October 7, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Tron Posted October 9, 2022 Member ID: 4147 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 26 Topic Count: 77 Topics Per Day: 0.02 Content Count: 781 Content Per Day: 0.18 Reputation: 889 Achievement Points: 6449 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 3 Joined: 12/07/12 Status: Offline Last Seen: Yesterday at 09:44 AM Birthday: 07/25/1968 Device: iPhone Author Share Posted October 9, 2022 Anyone that thinks Bitcoin is useless, doesn’t understand credit risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Tron Posted October 11, 2022 Member ID: 4147 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 26 Topic Count: 77 Topics Per Day: 0.02 Content Count: 781 Content Per Day: 0.18 Reputation: 889 Achievement Points: 6449 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 3 Joined: 12/07/12 Status: Offline Last Seen: Yesterday at 09:44 AM Birthday: 07/25/1968 Device: iPhone Author Share Posted October 11, 2022 Time to plan another trip to the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Sammy Posted October 11, 2022 Member ID: 3036 Group: ***- Inactive Clan Members Followers: 32 Topic Count: 219 Topics Per Day: 0.05 Content Count: 9419 Content Per Day: 2.01 Reputation: 7515 Achievement Points: 62539 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 21 Joined: 11/29/11 Status: Offline Last Seen: December 30, 2023 Birthday: 04/26/2008 Device: Windows Share Posted October 11, 2022 Why it debt pronounced 'det' but debit is pronounced exactly as its spelled? MikeB 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Tron Posted October 12, 2022 Member ID: 4147 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 26 Topic Count: 77 Topics Per Day: 0.02 Content Count: 781 Content Per Day: 0.18 Reputation: 889 Achievement Points: 6449 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 3 Joined: 12/07/12 Status: Offline Last Seen: Yesterday at 09:44 AM Birthday: 07/25/1968 Device: iPhone Author Share Posted October 12, 2022 Probably nothing…. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Tron Posted October 14, 2022 Member ID: 4147 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 26 Topic Count: 77 Topics Per Day: 0.02 Content Count: 781 Content Per Day: 0.18 Reputation: 889 Achievement Points: 6449 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 3 Joined: 12/07/12 Status: Offline Last Seen: Yesterday at 09:44 AM Birthday: 07/25/1968 Device: iPhone Author Share Posted October 14, 2022 The last time the U.S. markets faced a drawdown of this magnitude, the U.S. Government defaulted upon its gold peg within the next 24 months. 1933 - Executive order 6102 1971 - Nixon Shock Powell’s choice is either inflation, or Great Depression 2.0, not inflation or soft landing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Tron Posted October 14, 2022 Member ID: 4147 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 26 Topic Count: 77 Topics Per Day: 0.02 Content Count: 781 Content Per Day: 0.18 Reputation: 889 Achievement Points: 6449 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 3 Joined: 12/07/12 Status: Offline Last Seen: Yesterday at 09:44 AM Birthday: 07/25/1968 Device: iPhone Author Share Posted October 14, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Tron Posted October 19, 2022 Member ID: 4147 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 26 Topic Count: 77 Topics Per Day: 0.02 Content Count: 781 Content Per Day: 0.18 Reputation: 889 Achievement Points: 6449 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 3 Joined: 12/07/12 Status: Offline Last Seen: Yesterday at 09:44 AM Birthday: 07/25/1968 Device: iPhone Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Icequeen Posted October 19, 2022 Member ID: 9264 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 89 Topic Count: 94 Topics Per Day: 0.02 Content Count: 6155 Content Per Day: 1.48 Reputation: 8112 Achievement Points: 52096 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 59 Joined: 05/13/13 Status: Offline Last Seen: 1 hour ago Birthday: 07/13/1981 Device: Android Share Posted October 19, 2022 This is all so crazy. I actually just started not too long ago in investing. I was doing so well. Then I got scared and threw everything in my Roth. TBB 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
TBB Posted October 19, 2022 Member ID: 989 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 25 Topic Count: 284 Topics Per Day: 0.05 Content Count: 18690 Content Per Day: 3.48 Reputation: 21065 Achievement Points: 137114 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 311 Joined: 01/07/10 Status: Offline Last Seen: 3 hours ago Birthday: 01/27/1946 Device: Windows Share Posted October 19, 2022 It's all manipulated - if you catch it right you're rich - the rest of us are just >IDIOTS< Icequeen 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
Tron Posted October 21, 2022 Member ID: 4147 Group: *** Clan Members Followers: 26 Topic Count: 77 Topics Per Day: 0.02 Content Count: 781 Content Per Day: 0.18 Reputation: 889 Achievement Points: 6449 Solved Content: 0 Days Won: 3 Joined: 12/07/12 Status: Offline Last Seen: Yesterday at 09:44 AM Birthday: 07/25/1968 Device: iPhone Author Share Posted October 21, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options... Awards
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