Coronavirus in the USA for My Fellow Idiots

[Tron]

Greetings friends,

I would like to start this post by stating that my goal is not to instill panic, but to provide an analysis on this situation which I believe I am qualified to do and to perhaps prompt some of you to take this Covid-19 situation more seriously. I have an undergraduate degree in Biochemistry, a Doctor of Medicine degree and completed my residency training at the Mayo Clinic. I practiced medicine for 10 years. I have co-authored several scientific papers and know how to interpret scientific data. I have spent dozens of hours over the last 6 weeks combing through the available data surrounding this virus outbreak. This is not “just another flu”. The main reason for serious concern is the fact that our medical system is not prepared or equipped to deal with the surge in demand we are likely to see as this situation unfolds. While our government did eventually cut off travel arrivals from China, it was too little too late. Hundreds of thousands of people from China arrived in America before this ban went into effect, many of them likely infected and asymptomatic. Additionally, our CDC and FDA were asleep at the wheel, and in typical government bureaucratic fashion fucked the management of this up due to their desire to maintain total control of the testing procedure. This is now a situation of containment. It’s a numbers game. Yes, if you are under 65 and healthy you are not likely to become seriously ill if infected with Covid-19. However, do you have family, friends or neighbors that are older, or have pre-existing health problems? Are you willing to be so cavalier about this outbreak and be the reason one of these people ends up hospitalized? We do not have the capacity here in America to deal with tens of thousands of people that need an ICU bed. We have about 100k ICU beds here in the USA. At this very moment, approximately 75-80k of those beds are occupied with people sick from all sorts of regular ailments (yes, including some with “regular flu”) Below are some recently updated  numbers from Italy and Korea to hopefully wake you “it’s just the flu” bros the fuck up. 
 

Italy

-Total cases +25% 3089—->3858
-Death Toll +38% 107—->148
-ICU +19% 295—>351
-Hospitalized +33% 1346—->1790
 

Horrific data points out of Lombardy, Italy

9-10% cases in ICU

10% of doctors and nurses can’t work because they tested positive

South Korea

-Total cases 5766—>6284
-Death toll 35—>42

 

Almost all of the data coming out of China has been complete bullshit. Including all of the latest data showing that they have almost no new cases and most people have recovered.  At one point in China, 700 million people were locked down and forced to home quarantine. Do you honestly believe they would do that for “just another flu”? Here in America we have been behind the curve and have not been doing the appropriate amount of testing and social distancing needed to slow the spread enough to prevent eventually overwhelming our healthcare system. South Korea has done a much better job with this, and they still are dealing with a rapid increase in cases. If this doesn’t change soon, we are in big trouble here in America. We cannot build a hospital in 10 days like they did in China. We do not have excess ventilators and nursing staff. If you do not take this situation seriously, you are actually becoming part of the problem. I wish all of you the best. I consider all of you my friends, and I hope that none of you ultimately become sick, or have a family member who becomes sick. I’d recommend obvious common sense stuff such as frequent hand washing and using hand sanitizer, but I’d also suggest avoiding crowded situations if they are not necessary. It’s possible that if enough people change their behavior, and all of the large conferences and gatherings are canceled or postponed we can minimize the impact of this on our society. If not, we are going to have a similar situation to China and Italy very soon. It’s entirely possible it’s too late to stop that from occurring. Be prepared for school closures and travel disruptions. Ideally, be prepared to spend a minimum of two weeks (three-four better) without leaving your home. Have enough food, medicine, (alcohol) etc that you could hunker down and avoid contact with others and public places. Chances of needing to do this are not astronomical, but they are also not zero. 

 

Peace out and good luck.
 

 

[piglo]

Nice cut and paste.

[Tron]

lol okay pig boss whatever you say. 

[Tron]

6 minutes ago, piglo said:

Nice cut and paste.

If you are referring to the data out of Italy and Korea, yes I did get that from someone on Twitter that I follow and highly respect. I don’t claim to be an on the ground reporter traveling to the hot zones collecting data myself.

[Icequeen]

@Tron buddy. I know The media makes it like it's this scary thing coming. But they do this every single year with the flu. Wash wash wash your hands. 

[RobMc]

Tron you are a nice bloke, intelligent, and in your own way are trying to help us, but in fact are having the opposite effect. The average person is not stupid and can figure out there is an epidemic or pandemic occurring, but neither they, nor their governments, nor the medical profession can as yet do anything about it. Yes some people will die, as they do with every virus/disease/ailment, but fact is many more will die of cancer, heart disease etc etc.in the same period, do we make a fuss ?, no.

We will all die sometime mate, we have idiots who have been shot at, stabbed, involved in crashes, have serious ailments etc do they wail about it, do they fuck. So you are well meaning, but the medical profession do have some self interest and the press love a story. We can do as little about this as we can being struck by an asteroid,, and I for one would not thank you for telling me it was coming, give it a rest mate, play with us and kill us there.

[SgT.Chris]

Just going to leave this here

 

[HotRod55]

Sorry but its bull sh*t eat mud pies an drink out of the spicket an you will be fine. It has been around for a few years now, an now it pandemic haha its a media joke. 

[Kitsune]

7 hours ago, Tron said:

 I'd recommend obvious common sense stuff such as frequent hand washing and using hand sanitizer, but I’d also suggest avoiding crowded situations if they are not necessary. 

Me, a chronic introvert and general people hater:

Edited March 6, 2020 by ShinyAbsol94

[piglo]

6 hours ago, Tron said:

lol okay pig boss whatever you say. 

But you said " Peace out and good luck. "

[Timmah!]

Meanwhile, 25,000 people die EVERY DAY from starvation... every day.  Where's the media coverage?  Not so much, eh?

[RobMc]

57 minutes ago, Timmah! said:

Meanwhile, 25,000 people die EVERY DAY from starvation... every day.  

Wow I never knew that shutting down our local Mcdonalds would be headines over there? power of the press eh?

[7Toes]

this a scare story has been from the beginning the people who have died from this are the elderly and those with compromised immune systems.just like the flu.every 2 years there is a virus of armageddon going to kill us all pffff... i should be the one thats worried with my immune system.if i worry about every cold or virus i would be a shut in???OMG i an a shut in lol

 

[Sixgun]

 

[Sixgun]

[Power!]

I have a Pegasus Corona bike

Im bad boy  

[RobMc]

42 minutes ago, Power! said:

I have a Pegasus Corona bike

Im bad boy  

Wow Power that's a boys bike?? thought you needed a different model?

[Power!]

@RobMc

now you know

i know you had nasty dreams .

[Tron]

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-spreads-one-study-predicts-101552222.html

There is also a link in the article to the actual paper written by the Australian National University

[Gatorgirl]

Thank you Tron, appreciate your concern for everyone. 

[YACCster]

11 hours ago, Tron said:

Greetings friends,

I would like to start this post by stating that my goal is not to instill panic, but to provide an analysis on this situation which I believe I am qualified to do and to perhaps prompt some of you to take this Covid-19 situation more seriously. I have an undergraduate degree in Biochemistry, a Doctor of Medicine degree and completed my residency training at the Mayo Clinic. I practiced medicine for 10 years. I have co-authored several scientific papers and know how to interpret scientific data. I have spent dozens of hours over the last 6 weeks combing through the available data surrounding this virus outbreak. This is not “just another flu”. The main reason for serious concern is the fact that our medical system is not prepared or equipped to deal with the surge in demand we are likely to see as this situation unfolds. While our government did eventually cut off travel arrivals from China, it was too little too late. Hundreds of thousands of people from China arrived in America before this ban went into effect, many of them likely infected and asymptomatic. Additionally, our CDC and FDA were asleep at the wheel, and in typical government bureaucratic fashion fucked the management of this up due to their desire to maintain total control of the testing procedure. This is now a situation of containment. It’s a numbers game. Yes, if you are under 65 and healthy you are not likely to become seriously ill if infected with Covid-19. However, do you have family, friends or neighbors that are older, or have pre-existing health problems? Are you willing to be so cavalier about this outbreak and be the reason one of these people ends up hospitalized? We do not have the capacity here in America to deal with tens of thousands of people that need an ICU bed. We have about 100k ICU beds here in the USA. At this very moment, approximately 75-80k of those beds are occupied with people sick from all sorts of regular ailments (yes, including some with “regular flu”) Below are some recently updated  numbers from Italy and Korea to hopefully wake you “it’s just the flu” bros the fuck up. 
 

Italy

-Total cases +25% 3089—->3858
-Death Toll +38% 107—->148
-ICU +19% 295—>351
-Hospitalized +33% 1346—->1790
 

Horrific data points out of Lombardy, Italy

9-10% cases in ICU

10% of doctors and nurses can’t work because they tested positive

South Korea

-Total cases 5766—>6284
-Death toll 35—>42

 

Almost all of the data coming out of China has been complete bullshit. Including all of the latest data showing that they have almost no new cases and most people have recovered.  At one point in China, 700 million people were locked down and forced to home quarantine. Do you honestly believe they would do that for “just another flu”? Here in America we have been behind the curve and have not been doing the appropriate amount of testing and social distancing needed to slow the spread enough to prevent eventually overwhelming our healthcare system. South Korea has done a much better job with this, and they still are dealing with a rapid increase in cases. If this doesn’t change soon, we are in big trouble here in America. We cannot build a hospital in 10 days like they did in China. We do not have excess ventilators and nursing staff. If you do not take this situation seriously, you are actually becoming part of the problem. I wish all of you the best. I consider all of you my friends, and I hope that none of you ultimately become sick, or have a family member who becomes sick. I’d recommend obvious common sense stuff such as frequent hand washing and using hand sanitizer, but I’d also suggest avoiding crowded situations if they are not necessary. It’s possible that if enough people change their behavior, and all of the large conferences and gatherings are canceled or postponed we can minimize the impact of this on our society. If not, we are going to have a similar situation to China and Italy very soon. It’s entirely possible it’s too late to stop that from occurring. Be prepared for school closures and travel disruptions. Ideally, be prepared to spend a minimum of two weeks (three-four better) without leaving your home. Have enough food, medicine, (alcohol) etc that you could hunker down and avoid contact with others and public places. Chances of needing to do this are not astronomical, but they are also not zero. 

 

Peace out and good luck.
 

 

Amazing info, thanks sir!

[RobMc]

21 minutes ago, Gatorgirl said:

Thank you Tron, appreciate your concern for everyone. 

She's a nice lady, just ignore what Angu5 says about her

[Sixgun]

19 minutes ago, Tron said:

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-spreads-one-study-predicts-101552222.html

There is also a link in the article to the actual paper written by the Australian National University

That is a bull shit. It is not a death sentence. The reason why it spread in in China so fast is that there are 2 billion people crammed into their cities. The level of healthcare sucks and the sanitation sucks. Don't get me wrong I am saddened when anyone dies. But to freak out the public over something like this is careless and reckless. I have been all over the world and have seen things that are far more worse that the corona. Corona will come and go. We have seen the Asian flu, swine flu, SARS. But to say 15 million people will die is bull shit.

[Sixgun]

Dr. Oz noted that the virus isn't something we can expect to eliminate, but rather the public should get used to it being around forever.

"It's going to be an endemic virus, not epidemic or pandemic. Forget those phrases. I mean they're nice to know but the real issue is it always going to be with us. Or is it gonna go away like SARS did 20 years ago. And this virus isn't going anywhere. It's going to be with us for the foreseeable future," said Dr. Oz.

[YACCster]

6 minutes ago, Sixgun said:

Dr. Oz noted that the virus isn't something we can expect to eliminate, but rather the public should get used to it being around forever.

"It's going to be an endemic virus, not epidemic or pandemic. Forget those phrases. I mean they're nice to know but the real issue is it always going to be with us. Or is it gonna go away like SARS did 20 years ago. And this virus isn't going anywhere. It's going to be with us for the foreseeable future," said Dr. Oz.

Seriously, Dr. Oz....